Can the #8 Toyota still lose the Drivers’ title?
Seventeen points clear, with fifth place enough to seal the championship. On paper, Sébastien Buemi, Brendon Hartley and Ryō Hirakawa have every reason to approach Monza with confidence.
Victory in Barcelona put the #8 crew firmly on course for a third world title together, following their triumphs in 2022 and 2023. For Mike Conway, Kamui Kobayashi and Nyck de Vries, the equation is considerably more demanding: the #7 must finish first or second and hope its sister car encounters trouble.
“Even though we have a comfortable lead, championship finales are always stressful and you never know what can happen,” warns Hartley. “We need to execute a perfect weekend.”
Buemi is equally cautious: “We are in a favourable position, but the competition will be strong and the race will not be easy.”
Monza will also mark Mike Conway’s final appearance as a full-time Toyota driver.
Can TF Sport let the LMGT3 title slip away?
Winner of the 24 Hours of Le Mans, TF Sport’s #33 Corvette arrives at Monza leading both the LMGT3 Teams’ standings and, through Jonny Edgar, the Drivers’ championship with 92 points. The task is straightforward: finish inside the top five to secure the titles. Yet four cars remain mathematically in contention for the Teams’ crown.
The No. 92 The Bend Manthey Porsche trails by 18 points on 74, followed by the No. 34 Racing Team Turkey by TF Corvette on 70 and the No. 69 Team WRT BMW on 66. For the No. 33, fifth place would put the championship beyond the reach of every rival, regardless of their results.
The most unexpected threat could come from within TF Sport’s own garage. Winners in São Paulo, Salih Yoluç, Peter Dempsey and Charlie Eastwood have scored 52 points across the last four rounds in the #34 Corvette. No other LMGT3 entry has managed more over that period.
“The fact that we have two cars in the top three of the overall standings on the eve of the Season Finale proves what a great job everyone has done,” says TF Sport owner Tom Ferrier.
To overturn the deficit, the #34 must win at Monza. The #92 Porsche remains the closest challenger, while the #69 BMW can, at best, draw level with the leading Corvette on 92 points. That would require a perfect weekend for WRT and a scoreless finale for the #33, leaving the title to be decided on countback.
Can Ferrari or Cadillac deny BMW second place?
Toyota has already wrapped up the Manufacturers’ World Championship. Behind it, BMW holds second place with 154 points, ahead of Ferrari on 130 and Cadillac on 118. But the fight for the remaining championship positions is far from settled.
A one-two finish at Monza would yield 43 points, with another point available for pole position. With a maximum of 44 points still on offer, both Ferrari and Cadillac can mathematically overhaul BMW for second.
The Bavarian manufacturer leads Ferrari by 24 points and Cadillac by 36. The Scuderia has more room for manoeuvre than its American rival: it does not necessarily need to win, provided both 499Ps finish sufficiently high and BMW suffers a disappointing race.
“Monza has higher speed corners and long straights, which should suit our car better than the tighter nature of Barcelona,” says Cadillac Racing Chief Engineer Jeromy Moore.
Moore also expects low tyre degradation and potentially more overtaking opportunities.
Ferrari has other reasons to deliver a strong performance. The WEC returns to Monza after a three-year absence, giving the Italian manufacturer an opportunity to race in front of its home supporters, even if both world titles are already beyond its reach.
“We are sorry to return to the Autodromo Nazionale Monza without the opportunity to fight for the Drivers’ and Manufacturers’ titles, but, as always, we will do our best to give our Tifosi an enjoyable and memorable weekend,” says Antonio Fuoco.
Can Alpine sign off with one final standout result?
This really is the end. On Sunday evening, Alpine will bring its Hypercar programme to a close. After podium finishes in Austin and Fuji, the French manufacturer will be determined to avoid an anonymous farewell.
“As you can imagine, this final round at Monza will have a special significance,” says Team Principal Philippe Sinault. “For our last ‘dance in blue’, we will all be determined to shine and to make our Alpine A424 shine once again.”
“This season has revealed and confirmed both the team’s and the A424’s full potential, so our ambitions will be high as we close this chapter with Alpine.”
Monza is not unfamiliar territory for the French outfit, which tested there in February 2025. However, the A424 has evolved since then, while the autumn conditions will require the team to reassess the reference data gathered during that test.
Could tyre management decide the season finale?
Traditionally held during the summer, Monza takes place in November this year, bringing the prospect of low temperatures and rain. That could make getting the tyres into their operating window particularly challenging, especially in qualifying and following restarts.
“Monza has a rather unusual profile, with very high speeds but relatively low energy density for the tyres,” explains Pierre Alves, Michelin Motorsport’s Endurance Programme Manager.
The circuit places considerable demands on the front tyres under braking, while the rears must deliver traction on corner exit. The resurfacing carried out in 2024 has also changed the track’s characteristics, providing more grip and potentially significantly faster lap times than in 2023.
“The Soft will be the tyre to chase pole position, but race strategies remain very open,” adds Alves. “Depending on temperatures and how the track evolves, we could see double or even triple stints.”
On a circuit where heavy braking zones create overtaking opportunities, tyre management could prove decisive over six hours.