Will history smile on Cadillac once again?
Statistics are rarely decisive in endurance racing, but one trend is difficult to ignore. Every previous winner of the 6 Hours of São Paulo has started from the front row. If history repeats itself, Cadillac will leave Brazil with another victory.
Few would consider that an upset. The American manufacturer has once again locked out the front row, just as it did last year, even though the #38 car ultimately dropped from second on the grid following a penalty. That did little to prevent Cadillac from delivering a commanding one-two finish twelve months ago.
“With our new aero package and everything, it’s a pretty different car,” said Will Stevens. “So, to be able to get back-to-back poles and hopefully repeat the success tomorrow, I think it just shows what work this team does, even with a different package, to still bring out a maximum. So, kudos to the team. I think we just are starting to perform at most tracks, different styles, different characteristics, which is super encouraging. That’s what we tried to achieve with this new package, and we seem to be doing it.”
It was Cadillac’s fifth pole position in the World Endurance Championship, making it only the third Hypercar manufacturer to reach that mark after Toyota and Ferrari. Just as significantly, it was the brand’s first WEC pole not claimed by Alex Lynn.
Can Toyota pull off another comeback?
If there is one manufacturer that knows better than anyone that qualifying is only part of the story, it is Toyota Racing. Kamui Kobayashi, Mike Conway and Nyck de Vries arrive at Interlagos chasing a feat that has never been achieved before: winning both the 24 Hours of Le Mans and the 6 Hours of São Paulo in the same season.
Their task has become considerably harder after qualifying. Neither TR010 Hybrid featured among the frontrunners, with the #8 ending the session 0.566 seconds adrift of the benchmark in 14th. The sister No. 7 will start three places further back after receiving a three-place grid penalty for impeding the #19 Genesis GMR-001.
“It was a tough qualifying, but we did everything we could,” explained Ryō Hirakawa. “My best lap was clean, and we maximised our package. I think we have reasonable race pace, but the weather is a big unknown. So far this season we have done a good job with strategy, so we need to be very sharp on that side and hopefully we can score good points.”
Yet dismissing Toyota would be a dangerous mistake. Le Mans provided the perfect reminder that the Japanese manufacturer does not need track position to win. Just three weeks ago, victory came from 14th on the grid.
Can Genesis or Aston Martin write a new chapter?
Interlagos has developed an unexpected habit of welcoming first-time winners in the top class. Toyota opened its account there in 2012, Porsche followed in 2014, before Cadillac added its name to the list last season.
Three manufacturers now have the opportunity to continue that trend: Genesis, Aston Martin and Peugeot. Of the trio, Peugeot appears the least convincing despite making its 30th WEC start. Instead, it is Genesis that has quietly emerged as the most credible outsider.
The #19 GMR-001 secured sixth on the Hyperpole grid and has shown flashes of genuine pace throughout the weekend. Should conditions remain stable, the Korean manufacturer could yet find itself in the mix.
Wet weather, however, would represent a sterner examination. The GMR-001 still lacks the mechanical grip and systems refinement of its more established rivals, weaknesses that become increasingly exposed in changing conditions.
Will the weather become the decisive factor?
If there has been one constant throughout the week, it has been uncertainty over the weather. Teams arrived expecting dry practice and qualifying before rain reshaped Sunday’s race, potentially rendering much of Friday’s and Saturday’s data of limited value.
That scenario still appears the most likely, although forecasts have become less pessimistic over the last 24 hours. At the time of writing, the probability of rain sits at around 70 per cent for the start before falling to roughly 25 per cent by the chequered flag.
“It looked pretty much all week like it was going to be a lot of rain tonight as well, and also through tomorrow,” Stevens said. “But it seems to be getting a bit better, so it looks more towards the end of the race where we should get some rain, but obviously, as we’ve all seen over the years in São Paulo, it can rain at any point. I’d be pretty surprised if we have a full dry race.”
The changing forecast could also provide Michelin with the first real opportunity to race its recut wet-weather tyre, designed to evacuate greater volumes of water during heavy rainfall. The catch is that virtually nobody has been able to evaluate it properly under race conditions.
That alone makes strategy one of the great unknowns heading into Sunday.
A fourth LMGT3 winner in four races?
Three races have produced three different winners in LMGT3. BMW prevailed at Imola, McLaren struck back at Spa and Corvette claimed victory at Le Mans. Everything suggests the streak could continue.
Aston Martin, Mercedes and Lexus topped the timesheets in Hyperpole, underlining just how open the category remains. For Lexus in particular, victory at Interlagos would carry added significance. It would finally silence those who continue to argue that last year’s RC F LMGT3 victory owed more to the arrival of hard-compound tyres in Brazil than to outright performance.
Ferrari, meanwhile, faces a different challenge. The Italian manufacturer has not won in GT since the 2025 6 Hours of Spa, and nothing seen so far this weekend suggests the 296 LMGT3 possesses the pace required to fight for victory on merit. Neither of the two Italian cars made it into Hyperpole, with the quicker of the pair ending up 1.3 seconds off the benchmark set in qualifying. Around a circuit measuring just 4.309 km, that represents a significant deficit.
Even so, Vista AF Corse’s No. 21 entry remains TF Sport’s closest challenger in the championship on 40 points. Whatever happens on Sunday, Tom Ferrier’s squad will leave São Paulo still leading the standings, its 32-point advantage ensuring it cannot be overhauled this weekend.